Where other material to back up my assertions is readily accessible I’ve included a link. If you think any of these assertions are inaccurate (or need more referencing), please let me know in a comment below!
What are the key points coming out of climate and energy science?
Over recent years, several key points have firmed up in climate and energy sciences, listed here in no particular order of importance:
- Fossil fuels are all bad. “Low-emissions”
gas is a myth. The latest studies on gas show that at all expected rates
of leakage, gas has an enormous impact from fugitive emissions which
cancels out all or most of the advantages of burning gas instead of coal
- Renewable energy is becoming rapidly cheaper and more effective, but not at a pace fast enough to rapidly replace fossil fuels without pro-active intervention into existing generation capacity/infrastructure.
- Emissions targets internationally are
inadequate for meeting their own targeted limit to temperature rise, 2°C.
In any case, 2°C is far too dangerous because it will cause great hardship
and mass extinction of species, in its own right, and it is likely to
trigger further feedbacks meaning the temperature will continue rising
past 2°. In fact, even 1.5° temperature rise is too dangerous, and that’s
more or less locked in as it is with the existing level of greenhouse
gases. If we want to avoid disaster, we need to not only cut emissions but
draw down some of the CO2 that is already up there.
- Emissions budgets for even 2°C will be exhausted within a few years at current rates. It is still possible to act to avoid this scenario, but under business-as-usual politics, we are not taking the action needed. Actual emissions globally are still rising rapidly.
- The climate is already becoming unstable as seen in the Arctic sea-ice melt, arctic methane thaw, and increasing incidence of extreme weather events around the world.
Evaluating official actionSo how should we evaluate the Australian government policies that do exist for climate action? We need to note the following key problems.
- The emissions reduction targets (5% by 2020) are so small as to be basically meaningless when compared to what is needed.
- The emissions reductions targets include international offsets, meaning they are not representative of an actual domestic emissions reduction. At best, this is inequitable internationally, and is deceptive when targets are announced publicly in Australia.
- Renewable energy targets are much lower than the rollout of RE to date would suggest is easily possible. For example if we were to perpetuate the conditions that saw the growth of wind energy in Vic and SA up til about 2009, and the (relatively) large solar PV rollout over recent years. A case could probably be made that the Renewable Energy Target mechanism is holding renewables back more than it is supporting them.
- The projected increases in fossil fuel exports (and even existing export quantities) are propping up continued investment in fossil fuel generation internationally: increased supply reduces price.
- Infrastructure and government policy and planning all reflect the assumption that there will be continuing strong growth in fossil fuel use (see the recent Energy White Paper for example).
- Mythical CCS ‘clean coal’ technology continues to form a key plank of the government’s “commitment” to clean energy
- State Liberal/National coalition governments are now implementing a sharp attack on support for renewables (and backing new coal/gas investment and export, just as much as Labor).
- Although it hasn’t been openly stated, it appears likely that a future Abbott government could slash what renewables support exists, including the RET; it’s also possible that the Labor government will do so, on the recommendations of the Productivity Commission among others.
Public awarenessWe could also point to weaknesses in public awareness and understanding of climate change (as reflected in media coverage, polls, campaigns etc).
- Climate change denial has only made modest inroads into public awareness, but it’s inverse (awareness of just how bad it is) has not been growing either. In the middle ground, deniers have confused some people who are now less certain that climate change is a threat.
- Climate change science-based reporting has largely disappeared from mainstream media even as the science is becoming more clear and the implications more dire.
- Many climate-related campaigns, in some cases due to necessity (but not always), are downplaying or completely avoiding climate change messages. For example, some renewable energy campaigning and Lock The Gate-related anti-gas and coal campaigns.
- Official climate politics is dominated by a partisan war (ALP-Greens vs Coalition) which is over secondary issues such as whether compensation will be adequate (and who should be compensated), and the merits of carbon pricing mechanisms, while the big picture – i.e. the scale of the threat – is almost always left out and all public criticism of government policy is from a climate denial/do-nothing perspective.
- Environment and climate groups have diverse opinions as to the state of affairs, including some problematic large NGOs in particular that support gas and CCS; those with a clear appraisal of fossil gas risks are still disunited on message and priorities.
- There are several, sometimes competing, national NGOs and activist networks/campaigns. At worst, these compete for “market share” in getting publicity for their “brand”. At best, collaboration is haphazard and insufficient.
- Genuine concern about hardship is causing some concern about climate action - whether it’s coming from people who really are poor, or from relatively well-off people who may be heavily indebted, for example. This narrative is weakening/distracting from support for climate action.
- Renewable energy’s popularity shows resilience in the face of sustained attack. People are generally willing to invest in RE – even, or especially, personally – as its benefits are obvious and undeniable.
- Coal remains unequivocally unpopular.
- Fracking has achieved sufficient notoriety to cause serious problems for the gas industry.
- There is a mass movement in rural areas opposing coal and gas expansion, especially in QLD and NSW but spreading to Victoria and potentially to other states.
- The coal barons/mining magnates are increasingly coming under public scrutiny and criticism.
Conclusions for activistsI want to propose the following conclusions from the above:
- Climate change is indeed an emergency, but no nationally co-ordinated campaign or network is communicating this (in whatever “messaging” terms) to the Australian people. We have to change that.
- Practical campaigns (for renewables, against coal, against CSG etc) exist and are popular but under-resourced. The climate movement should make them “ours” even when the climate movement is not “theirs” (as is true for example with Lock The Gate).
- There is still broad public sympathy for climate activism which we have not sufficiently connected with or mobilised, and we need to find ways to do that.
- Taking the Clean Energy Future package on face value, it is woefully inadequate, whether or not it is a “step forward”.
- The government is saying climate action and doing something else (most clearly, on coal exports). This is true whatever you think of the Clean Energy Future package. We need to expose this hypocrisy.
- We need to keep social justice as an integral part of our message and make sure that if we advocate changes, we advocate that any sacrifice or hardship is shared equitably and according to the “polluter pays” principle.